Written By ChoseN
The first thing needed to be said right out the gate, is that this is all educated guessing, and not anything known for certain yet in relation to when Diablo 4 will officially release to the public. I do not have any direct input from Activision Blizzard on writing this, and anything written here is my own personal speculation. However, there are some things we can do to try our best to estimate based on the previous history of Diablo releases and Blizzard releases in general.
There will also be Season Passes in each of these new seasons, which is a mechanic mostly any gamer will be familiar with by now in 2022. Battle Passes and Season Passes are usually designed with a base free version that all players automatically get access to, with a premium version to unlock further rewards on top of the free version. Diablo 4 is going to be no different and that is exactly how their Season Passes will be designed. Blizzard made it emphatically clear in their post that the premium version of the Season Pass will not have a single aspect of making characters stronger or progressing faster. Meaning that as of right now, there seems to be no pay-to-win aspect of competing in seasons. That will be huge news to anyone who was put off by the heavy handed monetization model of the most recent game in the franchise, Diablo Immortal.
In trying to predict when Diablo 4 will release, it is probably best to look at previous Diablo releases, as the releases within the same franchise will probably be the best indicator. In general, it seems that Blizzard likes to release their big games in either the Spring, or Fall. This could be because they want to hit a release time-zone when young people are on break from studies, or a time-zone when adults are experiencing more free time during the Holiday season later in the year. We see this trend come true in the last 2 Diablo releases, with Diablo 3 releasing in May 2012, and Diablo Immortal releasing very early June 2022. Diablo 2 Resurrected wasn’t a brand new game, but it did release in the fall of 2021. Diablo Immortal was originally intended to release during the end of year Holiday season in 2021, but got delayed to a similar release point that Diablo 3 had.
This means in my opinion, the 3 most likely release windows for Diablo 4 are Spring 2023, Fall 2023, or Spring 2024. We’ve seen buzz and soft confirmations around Blizzard intending on a full public release of “sometime in 2023”. It is important to note that even though that may be the intention currently, it doesn’t mean Spring 2024 is out of the question. Remember, Diablo Immortal was publicly and officially announced to release in 2021, but ended up actually releasing in 2022.
Some people in the Diablo community feel that the most likely scenario is a release date of Spring 2023 but I think this is too soon with us not even seeing any sort of Beta yet. If I were asked to predict an actual date, I would lock in my guess as November 17th, 2023.
ChoseN’s Release Diablo 4 Release Date Odds
Spring 2023: 15%
Fall 2023: 75%
Spring 2024: 5%